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| 1 | +# Tether USDT Depeg Resolution Rules |
| 2 | + |
| 3 | +## Market Question |
| 4 | +**Will Tether's USDT stablecoin depeg before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC?** |
| 5 | + |
| 6 | +## Resolution Criteria |
| 7 | + |
| 8 | +### Definition of Depeg |
| 9 | +A depeg event occurs when **ALL** of the following conditions are met: |
| 10 | + |
| 11 | +1. **Price Threshold**: USDT trades at a price **outside the range of $0.95 to $1.05** (i.e., greater than 5% deviation from $1.00 peg) |
| 12 | +2. **Duration**: The price remains outside this range for a **continuous period of at least 6 hours** |
| 13 | +3. **Volume Threshold**: During the depeg period, there is at least **$10,000,000 USD in trading volume** across measured exchanges |
| 14 | +4. **Data Source Verification**: The depeg is confirmed by at least **2 out of 12** designated price oracle sources |
| 15 | + |
| 16 | +### Primary Data Sources (Price Oracles) |
| 17 | + |
| 18 | +The following sources shall be used for price determination (if available): |
| 19 | + |
| 20 | +**Aggregators:** |
| 21 | +1. **CoinGecko API** - USDT/USD pricing data |
| 22 | +2. **CoinMarketCap API** - USDT/USD pricing data |
| 23 | + |
| 24 | +**Decentralized Exchanges:** |
| 25 | +3. **Curve Finance** - USDT/USDC, USDT/DAI, and 3pool pricing |
| 26 | +4. **Uniswap V3** - USDT/USDC and USDT/ETH pool TWAP (Time-Weighted Average Price) |
| 27 | +5. **Manifest DEX** - USDT pricing data |
| 28 | + |
| 29 | +**Centralized Exchanges:** |
| 30 | +6. **Binance** - USDT/USD or USDT/BUSD pricing data |
| 31 | +7. **MEXC** - USDT/USD pricing data |
| 32 | +8. **Bullish** - USDT/USD pricing data |
| 33 | +9. **Hotcoin** - USDT/USD pricing data |
| 34 | +10. **Biconomy** - USDT/USD pricing data |
| 35 | +11. **CoinUp** - USDT/USD pricing data |
| 36 | + |
| 37 | +**On-Chain Oracles:** |
| 38 | +12. **Chainlink Oracle** - USDT/USD price feed |
| 39 | + |
| 40 | +### Timing Specification |
| 41 | +- **Market Start**: February 9, 2026, 00:00:00 UTC |
| 42 | +- **End Time**: Market closes at February 28, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC |
| 43 | +- All timestamps must be recorded in UTC |
| 44 | +- The 6-hour continuous depeg period must **begin and end** within the market timeframe |
| 45 | + |
| 46 | +## Edge Cases and Special Circumstances |
| 47 | + |
| 48 | +### 1. Flash Crashes and Manipulation |
| 49 | +- **Wick events** (price spikes lasting less than 5 minutes on a single exchange) do NOT count as depegs |
| 50 | +- If a depeg is caused by a **confirmed exploit, hack, or smart contract vulnerability** affecting USDT or its primary liquidity pools, it SHALL count as a depeg |
| 51 | +- If a depeg is caused by **market manipulation** that is later proven and reversed (e.g., exchange rollback), voters should evaluate whether the manipulation was economically significant |
| 52 | + |
| 53 | +### 2. Exchange-Specific Issues |
| 54 | +- If a depeg occurs on **only one exchange** due to that exchange's technical issues (e.g., deposit/withdrawal suspension, exchange hack not affecting USDT contract), it does NOT count unless 2+ oracle sources confirm the depeg |
| 55 | +- If **multiple major exchanges** (2+) simultaneously show depeg due to their own technical issues (not USDT-related), this does NOT count as a legitimate depeg |
| 56 | + |
| 57 | +### 3. Liquidity Events |
| 58 | +- **Low liquidity conditions**: If total USDT liquidity across all major DEXs falls below $100M, price deviations during this period require additional scrutiny |
| 59 | +- **Circuit breakers**: If exchanges implement trading halts or circuit breakers, the time during the halt does NOT count toward the 6-hour continuous period |
| 60 | + |
| 61 | +### 4. Smart Contract Events |
| 62 | + |
| 63 | +#### Oracle Failures |
| 64 | +- If **ALL price oracles simultaneously fail** or show obviously erroneous data (e.g., $0.00 or $1,000,000.00), voters should use the last known reliable price before failure |
| 65 | +- If oracles disagree significantly (>10% variance), use the median value of available oracles |
| 66 | + |
| 67 | +#### USDT Contract Changes |
| 68 | +- If Tether **deploys a new USDT contract** (e.g., USDT v2) and initiates a migration: |
| 69 | + - The old USDT contract price is tracked until migration completes or old token liquidity becomes negligible (<$10M) |
| 70 | + - The new contract is tracked from deployment |
| 71 | + - A depeg in EITHER version counts as a depeg event |
| 72 | + |
| 73 | +#### Upgrades and Pauses |
| 74 | +- If the USDT contract is **paused** by admin functions, this is considered a depeg event if it lasts 6+ hours and trading cannot occur |
| 75 | +- If the contract is **upgraded** and the upgrade causes price disruption, this counts as a depeg if criteria are met |
| 76 | + |
| 77 | +### 5. Multi-Chain Considerations |
| 78 | +- USDT exists on **multiple chains** (Ethereum, Tron, Solana, etc.) |
| 79 | +- Only **Ethereum mainnet** USDT price is used for resolution unless >70% of total USDT liquidity migrates to another chain |
| 80 | +- Cross-chain bridge failures do NOT automatically constitute a depeg unless they cause Ethereum mainnet USDT to depeg |
| 81 | + |
| 82 | +### 6. Collateral and Backing Issues |
| 83 | +- If Tether's **reserves** are questioned or found to be below 100% backing, but USDT maintains its peg on markets, this does NOT count as a depeg |
| 84 | +- If **backing concerns** cause a market depeg that meets all criteria, it DOES count |
| 85 | + |
| 86 | +### 7. Regulatory and Legal Events |
| 87 | +- If USDT is **delisted** from exchanges due to regulatory action, evaluate remaining exchanges for price |
| 88 | +- If Tether Limited **ceases operations** but USDT contract remains functional, track the market price |
| 89 | +- If regulatory action **freezes the smart contract**, this is treated as a depeg event if it lasts 6+ hours |
| 90 | +- If Tether **blacklists addresses** or freezes funds, this does NOT constitute a depeg unless it causes market price to depeg |
| 91 | + |
| 92 | +### 8. Network and Infrastructure Issues |
| 93 | + |
| 94 | +#### Ethereum Network Issues |
| 95 | +- If Ethereum experiences a **major outage, hardfork, or chain split**, use the chain that Tether officially recognizes as canonical |
| 96 | +- If Ethereum is **unreachable** for 6+ hours preventing USDT transfers, this is NOT automatically a depeg unless price data shows depeg |
| 97 | + |
| 98 | +#### Cross-Chain Issues |
| 99 | +- If bridges between chains fail, evaluate **Ethereum mainnet** price only |
| 100 | +- If Tron or other major USDT chains experience issues, this does NOT affect resolution unless Ethereum mainnet USDT depegs |
| 101 | + |
| 102 | +### 9. Market Closure Scenarios |
| 103 | +- If **all major exchanges** simultaneously delist or suspend USDT trading, and no price can be determined for 6+ hours, this SHALL be considered a depeg event |
| 104 | +- If trading volume falls to **zero** for 6+ hours while price shows depeg, this counts as a depeg |
| 105 | + |
| 106 | +### 10. Data Source Unavailability |
| 107 | +- If 2+ primary data sources are **unavailable** at the time of resolution, voters should: |
| 108 | + 1. Use historical blockchain data and DEX trades |
| 109 | + 2. Reference archived price data from reliable sources |
| 110 | + 3. Consult Tether's official communications |
| 111 | + 4. Use good-faith judgment based on available evidence |
| 112 | + |
| 113 | +### 11. Time Zone and Calendar Issues |
| 114 | +- All times are in **UTC** |
| 115 | +- The deadline of "February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM" means **23:59:59 UTC on February 28, 2026** |
| 116 | +- Any depeg event must **start** before this deadline; if it starts at 23:55 UTC and continues into March, it still counts |
| 117 | + |
| 118 | +### 12. Ambiguous Situations |
| 119 | +If a situation arises that is not clearly covered by these rules, voters should: |
| 120 | +1. Prioritize the **spirit of the market** (did USDT meaningfully lose its peg?) |
| 121 | +2. Consider **economic impact** (were users/protocols materially affected?) |
| 122 | +3. Evaluate **duration and severity** (was it brief and minor, or prolonged and severe?) |
| 123 | +4. Look for **consensus** among Tether, major exchanges, and DeFi protocols |
| 124 | +5. Vote based on **available evidence** and good-faith interpretation |
| 125 | + |
| 126 | +## Resolution Process |
| 127 | + |
| 128 | +### Required Evidence |
| 129 | +Voters should provide or verify: |
| 130 | +- Screenshots or API data from at least 3 price oracle sources |
| 131 | +- Timestamps showing the start and end of the depeg period |
| 132 | +- Evidence of trading volume during the period |
| 133 | +- Blockchain transaction data if relevant |
| 134 | +- Official statements from Tether (if any) |
| 135 | + |
| 136 | +### Burden of Proof |
| 137 | +- The burden of proof for a **"YES"** vote (depeg occurred) requires clear evidence meeting ALL criteria |
| 138 | +- In cases of **ambiguity or missing data**, voters should default to **"NO"** (no depeg) |
| 139 | + |
| 140 | +### Resolution Timeline |
| 141 | +- Resolution should occur within **7 days** after the market end date (by March 7, 2026) |
| 142 | +- If disputes arise, allow additional time for evidence gathering and discussion |
| 143 | + |
| 144 | +## Definitions |
| 145 | + |
| 146 | +- **USDT**: Tether's USD-pegged stablecoin as deployed on Ethereum mainnet at the official contract address (0xdAC17F958D2ee523a2206206994597C13D831ec7) |
| 147 | +- **Depeg**: Price deviation beyond the specified threshold for the specified duration with confirmed volume |
| 148 | +- **Continuous Period**: An unbroken timeframe; if price returns to peg range even briefly, the timer resets |
| 149 | +- **Trading Volume**: Cumulative notional USD value of trades across measured exchanges during the depeg period |
| 150 | +- **Major Exchanges**: Exchanges ranked in the top 30 by volume on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap |
| 151 | +- **Price Oracle**: An API or on-chain data source providing reliable USDT/USD pricing information |
| 152 | + |
| 153 | +## Amendment Process |
| 154 | + |
| 155 | +These rules may be amended by community consensus if: |
| 156 | +1. A critical issue is discovered that makes the market unresolvable |
| 157 | +2. Tether makes fundamental changes to USDT that require rule updates |
| 158 | +3. Technical changes (blockchain upgrades, etc.) require clarification |
| 159 | + |
| 160 | +Amendments must be proposed, discussed, and approved before the market close date. |
| 161 | + |
| 162 | +--- |
| 163 | + |
| 164 | +## Summary Checklist for Voters |
| 165 | + |
| 166 | +To vote **YES** (depeg occurred), confirm: |
| 167 | +- [ ] USDT price was below $0.95 OR above $1.05 |
| 168 | +- [ ] Price remained outside range for 6+ continuous hours |
| 169 | +- [ ] At least $10M trading volume during depeg period |
| 170 | +- [ ] At least 2 out of 12 oracle sources confirm the depeg |
| 171 | +- [ ] The depeg period began before February 28, 2026, 23:59:59 UTC |
| 172 | +- [ ] The depeg was not solely due to data errors or single-exchange issues |
| 173 | + |
| 174 | +To vote **NO** (no depeg occurred), confirm: |
| 175 | +- [ ] No qualifying depeg event occurred during the market period |
| 176 | +- [ ] Any price deviations were too brief, too small, or lacked sufficient volume |
| 177 | +- [ ] Available evidence does not meet the required threshold |
| 178 | + |
| 179 | +--- |
| 180 | + |
| 181 | +**Last Updated**: February 9, 2026 |
| 182 | +**Version**: 1.0 |
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