---
tags:
  - oil
  - extinction events
---

# oil

!!! bug 'the dumbest human experiments'
    - removing carbon from the ground and dumping it into the atmosphere
    - depeleting topsoil to grow ethanol fuel

## summary

!!! bug "<50 years to oil depletion"
    - there are 1.7 trillion barrels of oil left
    - we burn 100 million barrels barrels a day
    - estimated to run out in 48.6 years
    - the co2 released from burning it releases 2700 to 5000 gigatons of co2
    - that causes a temperature increase estimated at 3 degrees Celsius, 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7-8.1 degrees Fahrenheit)

!!! warning "result if an 8 degree increase happens"
    - Melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, leading to a significant rise in sea levels and coastal flooding.
    - Collapse of ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream, which help regulate the climate in many parts of the world.
    - Extensive droughts and wildfires, as well as more frequent and intense heatwaves, which would lead to crop failures, water shortages, and widespread ecosystem collapse.
    - Acidification of the oceans, which would have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems, including coral reefs and fisheries.
    - Release of large amounts of methane from thawing permafrost and melting clathrates, which could trigger even more rapid and severe warming.
    - Collapse of many terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests, grasslands, and tundra, which would lead to significant losses in biodiversity and ecosystem services.

## how many years before oil reserves are depleted

The number of years before oil reserves are depleted depends on various factors such as the rate of consumption, discovery of new reserves, advances in technology, and shifts in energy policies. The current estimate for global oil reserves is approximately 1.7 trillion barrels, and the current daily global consumption of oil is about 100 million barrels. Based on these figures, it is estimated that the world's oil reserves will last for about 48.6 years. However, this is a rough estimate and subject to change based on the aforementioned factors.

## how many metric tonnes of co2 will be released by burning the rest of the oil reserves

It is difficult to give a precise estimate of the amount of CO2 that would be released by burning the remaining oil reserves, as it would depend on a number of factors such as the efficiency of extraction and combustion technologies, as well as changes in energy demand over time. However, according to a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014, it is estimated that the burning of all remaining global fossil fuel reserves could release between 2700 and 5000 gigatons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) into the atmosphere. This would contribute significantly to further climate change and associated impacts.

## how much does the temperature rise from that much co2

The amount that temperature will rise from a given amount of CO2 emissions is a complex and uncertain topic, as it depends on many factors such as the sensitivity of the climate system, feedback mechanisms, and the rate and extent of emissions. However, it is generally agreed that continued high levels of CO2 emissions will contribute to further warming of the planet and other related impacts, such as ocean acidification and sea level rise. The exact amount of warming that will occur from burning the rest of the oil reserves will depend on the amount of oil remaining, as well as the rate and extent of its use.

## what is the rough estimate

The exact temperature rise resulting from a given amount of CO2 emissions is difficult to estimate because it depends on many factors, such as the rate of emissions, the absorption of CO2 by oceans and other carbon sinks, and the feedback loops involved in the climate system. However, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations relative to pre-industrial levels (from about 280 parts per million to about 560 parts per million) is likely to result in a global average temperature increase of 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius (2.7-8.1 degrees Fahrenheit), with a best estimate of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit).

## what are the main collapses that occur when the global temperature rises 8.1 degrees

A global temperature rise of 8.1 degrees Celsius would have catastrophic impacts on the Earth's ecosystems and human society. Some of the major collapses that could occur include:

- Melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, leading to a significant rise in sea levels and coastal flooding.
- Collapse of ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream, which help regulate the climate in many parts of the world.
- Extensive droughts and wildfires, as well as more frequent and intense heatwaves, which would lead to crop failures, water shortages, and widespread ecosystem collapse.
- Acidification of the oceans, which would have devastating impacts on marine ecosystems, including coral reefs and fisheries.
- Release of large amounts of methane from thawing permafrost and melting clathrates, which could trigger even more rapid and severe warming.
- Collapse of many terrestrial ecosystems, such as forests, grasslands, and tundra, which would lead to significant losses in biodiversity and ecosystem services.

## living without oil

- or worse without a sun (die by fire or morph into final form)

<iframe width="641" height="481" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RfwsvSjXkJU" title="Of Beauty and Consolation Episode 9 Edward Witten" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>

According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2021, as of the end of 2020, the world had proven reserves of about 1.3 trillion barrels of oil, which at current production rates would last about 47 years. The world also had proven reserves of about 7.6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, which at current production rates would last about 55 years. Finally, the world had proven reserves of about 1732 billion tonnes of coal, which at current production rates would last about 149 years.

When the oil runs out, there will be significant impacts on the global economy and society. Oil is used not only as a source of energy for transportation and electricity generation but also as a raw material for many products, including plastics and chemicals.

Without oil, it is likely that the global economy would need to transition to alternative sources of energy, such as renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower, which may not be as efficient or as cost-effective as oil. There could also be significant geopolitical implications, as countries that are currently reliant on oil exports may need to find alternative sources of revenue and economic stability.

Additionally, without oil, there could be significant disruptions to global supply chains and the availability of goods, as many products rely on oil-based raw materials for production. Finally, there could be significant environmental impacts as well, as the extraction and use of oil have significant impacts on air and water quality, wildlife, and natural habitats.
