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update inflation rate & combined income tax rate
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‎docs/Fervo_Project_Cape-4.md‎

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@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ Financial results are calculated
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using
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the [SAM Single Owner PPA Economic Model](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html#sam-single-owner-ppa).
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Key case study results include LCOE = $79.7/MWh and CAPEX = $5200/kW.
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Key case study results include LCOE = $80.4/MWh and CAPEX = $5300/kW.
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[Click here](https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?geophires-example-id=Fervo_Project_Cape-4) to
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interactively explore the case study in the GEOPHIRES web interface.
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| Parameter | Input Value(s) | Source |
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|-----------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
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| Economic Model | SAM Single Owner PPA | The SAM Single Owner PPA economic model is used to calculate financial results including LCOE, NPV, IRR, and pro-forma cash flow analysis. See [GEOPHIRES documentation of SAM Economic Models](https://softwareengineerprogrammer.github.io/GEOPHIRES/SAM-Economic-Models.html) for details on how System Advisor Model financial models are integrated into GEOPHIRES. |
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| Inflation Rate | 2.3% | US inflation rate as of April 2025 |
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| Inflation Rate | 2.7% | US inflation rate as of December 2025 |
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| PPA Price | Starting at 9.5 cents/kWh, escalating to 10 cents/kWh by project year 11 | Upper end of ranges given in 2024 NREL ATB (NREL, 2024). Both PPAs 'firm for 10 years at less than $100/MWh' estimate given in a podcast. |
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| Well Drilling Cost Correlation & Adjustment Factor | Vertical large baseline correlation + adjustment factor = 0.9 | NREL, 2025; Akindipe & Witter, 2025; Note: higher than Fervo-claimed drilling costs of <$4M/well, which are equivalent to adjustment factor = 0.8 (Latimer, 2025). |
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| Reservoir Stimulation Capital Cost per Well | $4.6M (all-in cost, including 15% contingency) | The all-in cost is based on a ~$4.0M baseline stimulation cost, calibrated from per-stage costs of high-intensity U.S. shale wells (Baytex Energy, 2024; Quantum Proppant Technologies, 2020), which are the closest technological analogue for multi-stage EGS (Gradl, 2018). This baseline assumes standard sand proppant. The 15% contingency (~$0.6M) accounts for the necessary upgrade to ceramic proppant, which is required to resist mechanical crushing and geochemical degradation (diagenesis) over a 30-year well life at 200°C (Ko et al., 2023; Shiozawa & McClure, 2014). |
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| Metric | Result Value | Reference Value(s) | Reference Source |
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|------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------|
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| LCOE | $79.7/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
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| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.8B | | |
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| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5200/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| LCOE | $80.4/MWh | $80/MWh | Horne et al, 2025 |
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| Project capital costs: Total CAPEX | $2.85B | | |
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| Project capital costs: $/kW | $5300/kW (based on maximum net electricity generation) | $5000/kW; $4500/kW; $3000–$6000/kW | McClure, 2024; Horne et al, 2025; Latimer, 2025. |
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| Well Drilling and Completion Costs | $4.46M/well; $446M total | $<4M/well | Latimer, 2025. |
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| Stimulation Costs | $4.6M/well; $483M total | $4.65M/well (based on 46%:54% drilling:stimulation cost ratio) | (Yusifov & Enriquez, 2025) |
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| WACC | 9.22% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. |
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| After-tax IRR | 22.09% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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| WACC | 9.49% | 8.3% | Matson, 2024. |
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| After-tax IRR | 21.8% | 15–25% | Typical levered returns for energy projects |
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### Technical & Engineering Results
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## Sensitivity Analysis
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The following charts show sensitivity of key metrics to various input parameter values.
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The following charts show the sensitivity of key metrics to various inputs.
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Each chart shows the sensitivity of a single metric, such as LCOE, to the set of tested input values.
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The leftmost chart column shows the parameter being tested and its baseline case study input value in parentheses.
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The bars for each row show the deltas of the metric value from the baseline case study value for the values tested for that parameter.
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Green bars indicate favorable outcomes, such as lower LCOE or higher IRR, while gray bars indicate unfavorable outcomes, such as higher LCOE or lower IRR.
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Click the bars to view the sensitivity analysis result for the input value in the web interface.
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.. raw:: html

‎docs/_images/fervo_project_cape-4-sensitivity-analysis-irr.png‎

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