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End-to-end ML project predicting telecom customer churn in real-time, focusing on optimizing high-value customer retention (Recall).

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Dhinesh-s2006/telecom-churn-predictor

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📞 Telecom Customer Churn Prediction Engine

This project demonstrates a full-stack deployment of a Machine Learning model designed to predict customer churn risk in real time, focusing on optimizing high-value customer retention (Recall).


🎯 Project Goal

The primary objective was to minimize False Negatives (missed churners) to maximize revenue protection.
This was achieved by optimizing for high Recall on the minority (churn) class.


🧠 Final Model Performance

Metric Description Value
Model Used Decision Tree Classifier
Key Optimization class_weight='balanced'
Churn Recall (Capture Rate) % of actual churners correctly identified 79%
Churn Precision (Efficiency) % of predicted churners who actually churn 49%
Missed Customers (FN) False Negatives — churners missed by model 80

This section highlights the core business trade-off:
maximizing Recall to minimize revenue loss, even if Precision decreases slightly.


⚙️ Technical Pipeline (MLOps)

The application transfers data between the frontend, backend, and model in three key stages:

1️⃣ Data Science & Feature Engineering

  • Feature Creation: Built a robust 18-feature set, including metrics such as Charge Deviation and Number of Services.
  • Imbalance Handling: Applied class_weight='balanced' during training to increase model sensitivity.
    • Result: Achieved a 79% Recall on the minority churn class.

2️⃣ Deployment Stack (API Backend)

  • Model Artifact: Optimized Decision Tree saved as
    churn_model.pkl

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End-to-end ML project predicting telecom customer churn in real-time, focusing on optimizing high-value customer retention (Recall).

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