Cut the validation pages, rebuild the charts that could not fail, and give define-uk a paper

README.md

@@ -203,7 +203,7 @@ python3 -m http.server 8000   # then open http://localhost:8000/
 | `forecasts/` | the forecast track record, plus the data store (`#data`) and the release notes index (`#notes`) |
 | `forecasts/us/` | why there is no US track record yet |
 | `papers/<slug>/` | the four working-paper pages: `obr-macro`, `boe-svar`, `frb-us`, `psl-og` (`papers/us-hank/` holds figures only, and `papers/*.pdf` are served directly) |
-| `reports/` | replication reports — `define-uk-replication/` and `us-hank-open-source.html` |
+| `reports/` | replication reports — `define-uk-replication/` and `us-hank-open-source/` |
 | `notes/releases/` | index of the generated per-vintage release notes, plus `notes/<date>-<slug>/` note pages |
 | `connect/` | connect it or code it — MCP / CLI setup and the Python API |
 | `contact/` | who to contact |

define/code/index.html

@@ -72,7 +72,7 @@ <h1 class="reveal page-title" style="--d:1;">
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/methodology">Methodology</a>
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/validation">Validation</a>
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/code" aria-current="page">Code</a>
-      <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/reports/define-uk-replication">Paper</a>
+      <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/papers/define-uk">Paper</a>
     </div>
   </nav>
 

define/index.html

@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@ <h2>Connected to the microsimulation — experimentally, deltas in, incidence ou
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/methodology">Methodology</a>
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/validation">Validation</a>
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/code">Code</a>
-      <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/reports/define-uk-replication">Paper</a>
+      <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/papers/define-uk">Paper</a>
     </div>
   </nav>
 
@@ -135,7 +135,7 @@ <h2>Validated to the ceiling the publications allow. Deltas only.</h2>
       </div>
       <p>
         Two things do not pass. The baseline emissions path runs below the
-        published table — &minus;3.4% in 2025, widening to &minus;23% by 2040
+        published table — &minus;3.5% in 2025, widening to &minus;23.3% by 2040
         — pinned at the observed ratios and raised with the authors. And the
         baseline sits far from official outturns: 2025 growth 4.66% against an
         ONS 1.31%, 2024 emissions 401.5 MtCO2e against a DESNZ 371 — a gap
@@ -146,10 +146,11 @@ <h2>Validated to the ceiling the publications allow. Deltas only.</h2>
         <summary>Two more things to know before quoting a number</summary>
         <p>
           <strong>The multiplier runs high.</strong> Our cumulative
-          green-public-investment multiplier is 1.78, against IMF
-          green-spending estimates of 1.1&ndash;1.5 and an OBR capital
-          multiplier of &asymp;1.0 — the demand-led closure, labelled wherever
-          a delta is served. The upstream table's own multiplier columns are
+          green-public-investment multiplier is 1.78. It is not comparable to the
+          short-horizon published multipliers it used to sit beside: ours is
+          cumulative to 2040, its denominator is endogenous and biases the
+          ratio up, and a demand-led closure implies above 1 anyway. Labelled
+          wherever a delta is served. The upstream table's own multiplier columns are
           unusable, and never quoted.
         </p>
         <p>

define/methodology/index.html

@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ <h1 class="reveal page-title" style="--d:1;">
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/methodology" aria-current="page">Methodology</a>
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/validation">Validation</a>
       <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/define/code">Code</a>
-      <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/reports/define-uk-replication">Paper</a>
+      <a class="model-tabs-link" href="/papers/define-uk">Paper</a>
     </div>
   </nav>
 
@@ -232,7 +232,7 @@ <h4>What version 1.1 added</h4>
             <text x="404" y="83" font-family="Roboto, sans-serif" font-size="11" fill="var(--accent)" font-weight="700" text-anchor="start">DEFINE-UK 1.78 (our computation)</text>
             <rect x="40" y="100" width="220" height="24" rx="4" fill="var(--accent)" opacity="0.55"/>
             <rect x="260" y="100" width="80" height="24" rx="4" fill="var(--accent)" opacity="0.25"/>
-            <text x="348" y="117" font-family="Roboto, sans-serif" font-size="11" fill="var(--text-mid)" text-anchor="start">IMF green spending 1.1&ndash;1.5</text>
+            <text x="348" y="117" font-family="Roboto, sans-serif" font-size="11" fill="var(--text-mid)" text-anchor="start">short-horizon published multipliers (not comparable)</text>
             <rect x="40" y="134" width="200" height="24" rx="4" fill="var(--text-light)" opacity="0.5"/>
             <text x="248" y="151" font-family="Roboto, sans-serif" font-size="11" fill="var(--text-mid)" text-anchor="start">OBR capital spending &asymp; 1.0</text>
             <line x1="40" y1="176" x2="540" y2="176" stroke="var(--text-light)" stroke-width="1.5" marker-end="url(#arr-d4)"/>
@@ -243,12 +243,12 @@ <h4>What version 1.1 added</h4>
         <h4>The closure</h4>
       <p>DEFINE-UK is closed demand-led: output adjusts to aggregate demand rather than being pinned to a supply-side potential path. That is the standard post-Keynesian SFC closure, and it has a direct, observable consequence — fiscal expansions are not crowded out by an assumed return to potential, so fiscal multipliers come out larger than in supply-constrained models like the <a href="/obr">OBR emulator</a>.</p>
         <h4>Measured, not asserted</h4>
-      <p>We measure this rather than assert it: our own computation of the model's cumulative green-public-investment multiplier is <strong>1.78</strong>, against IMF green-spending estimates of 1.1&ndash;1.5 and an OBR capital-spending impact multiplier of &asymp;1.0. Above the official range, but explicably so given the closure — and every surface that quotes a DEFINE-UK delta carries the demand-led caveat. The full comparison is on the <a href="/define/validation">validation page</a>.</p>
+      <p>We measure this rather than assert it: our own computation of the model's cumulative green-public-investment multiplier is <strong>1.78</strong>. It is not comparable to the short-horizon published multipliers it used to be set against: ours is cumulative to 2040, its denominator is endogenous and biases the ratio up, and a demand-led closure implies above 1 anyway. Every surface that quotes a DEFINE-UK delta carries the caveat. The full comparison is on the <a href="/define/validation">validation page</a>.</p>
         <div class="meth-inline">
         <div class="meth-sec-title">closure and multipliers</div>
         <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">closure</div><div class="meth-eq-body">demand-led: \(Y\) adjusts to aggregate demand, not a potential path</div></div>
         <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">our computation</div><div class="meth-eq-body">cumulative green-public-investment multiplier <strong>1.78</strong></div></div>
-        <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">comparators</div><div class="meth-eq-body">IMF green spending 1.1&ndash;1.5 · OBR capital-spending impact &asymp; 1.0</div></div>
+        <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">comparators</div><div class="meth-eq-body">not comparable to short-horizon published multipliers: ours is cumulative to 2040, its denominator is endogenous and biases the ratio up, and a demand-led closure implies above 1 anyway</div></div>
         </div>
       </div>
 
@@ -308,7 +308,7 @@ <h4>Verifying the switches</h4>
             <text x="150" y="132" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Roboto, sans-serif" font-size="10" fill="var(--text-light)">numerical oracle only</text>
             <rect x="15" y="145" width="550" height="60" rx="10" fill="var(--accent-light)" stroke="var(--accent)" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-dasharray="5 3"/>
             <text x="290" y="167" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Roboto, sans-serif" font-size="12" fill="var(--accent)" font-weight="700">clean-room Python reimplementation: the manual is the specification</text>
-            <text x="290" y="186" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Roboto, sans-serif" font-size="10" fill="var(--text-mid)">upstream source never read to write equations &middot; 5 milestones &middot; milestone 1 passed with 27 identity tests</text>
+            <text x="290" y="186" text-anchor="middle" font-family="Roboto, sans-serif" font-size="10" fill="var(--text-mid)">upstream source never read to write equations &middot; 5 milestones &middot; milestone 1 passed with 44 identity tests of 62 collected</text>
           </svg>
           <figcaption class="expand-hint mono">click to expand</figcaption>
         </figure>
@@ -317,7 +317,7 @@ <h4>The constraint</h4>
         <h4>Deltas only, local only</h4>
       <p><code>pe-macro define-scenarios</code> and <code>pe-macro define-scenario</code> return annualised scenario-minus-baseline delta paths only, framed with mandatory caveats — never levels, because the baseline's calibration gap to ONS/DESNZ/OBR actuals is computed and material. The hosted MCP tools return run instructions instead of results, because the unlicensed upstream is never hosted. <code>score_reform</code> will not accept this model.</p>
         <h4>The clean-room path to hosting</h4>
-      <p>The path to hosting is a <a href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/define-uk-model/blob/main/REIMPLEMENTATION.md">clean-room Python reimplementation</a> of the published Model Manual — the same adapted-model approach as the OBR emulator. The protocol: the manual is the specification, and the upstream run is a numerical oracle only — its outputs are compared against ours, but its source code is never read to write equations, and every equation must carry a reference to the manual section and equation number it implements. Five milestones run from the accounting core to the full policy scenarios; milestone 1 — the §2.2 transactions and balance-sheet matrices on the §5 initial values — passed with 27 identity tests, including one documented inconsistency in the manual itself (Table 6 omits a dividend term of Eq. 383 from the interbank-lending row, which the tests pin exactly rather than paper over).</p>
+      <p>The path to hosting is a <a href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/define-uk-model/blob/main/REIMPLEMENTATION.md">clean-room Python reimplementation</a> of the published Model Manual — the same adapted-model approach as the OBR emulator. The protocol: the manual is the specification, and the upstream run is a numerical oracle only — its outputs are compared against ours, but its source code is never read to write equations, and every equation must carry a reference to the manual section and equation number it implements. Five milestones run from the accounting core to the full policy scenarios; milestone 1 — the §2.2 transactions and balance-sheet matrices on the §5 initial values — passed with 44 identity tests of 62 collected, including one documented inconsistency in the manual itself (Table 6 omits a dividend term of Eq. 383 from the interbank-lending row, which the tests pin exactly rather than paper over).</p>
         <div class="meth-inline">
         <div class="meth-sec-title">adapter architecture</div>
         <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">pinned commit</div><div class="meth-eq-body">runtime fetch at <code>846081a</code>; executed unmodified, in R; nothing vendored or hosted</div></div>
@@ -357,7 +357,7 @@ <h4>The clean-room path to hosting</h4>
           <div class="meth-sec-title">closure and multipliers</div>
         <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">closure</div><div class="meth-eq-body">demand-led: \(Y\) adjusts to aggregate demand, not a potential path</div></div>
         <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">our computation</div><div class="meth-eq-body">cumulative green-public-investment multiplier <strong>1.78</strong></div></div>
-        <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">comparators</div><div class="meth-eq-body">IMF green spending 1.1&ndash;1.5 · OBR capital-spending impact &asymp; 1.0</div></div>
+        <div class="meth-eq"><div class="meth-eq-label">comparators</div><div class="meth-eq-body">not comparable to short-horizon published multipliers: ours is cumulative to 2040, its denominator is endogenous and biases the ratio up, and a demand-led closure implies above 1 anyway</div></div>
         </div>
         <div class="meth-panel" data-step="4" hidden>
           <div class="meth-panel-head"><span class="meth-panel-title">Scenarios as policy switches</span><span class="meth-panel-badge mono">Step 5</span></div>