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Update bundle to policyengine-uk 2.90.2 (UC deductions) and core 3.30.1 - #491

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bump-pe-uk-deductions
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Update bundle to policyengine-uk 2.90.2 (UC deductions) and core 3.30.1#491
MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit into
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bump-pe-uk-deductions

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@MaxGhenis

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Brings Universal Credit deductions (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#1815, released in 2.90.0–2.90.2) into the certified bundle: the Fair Repayment Rate cap and its statutory history, latent deduction demand calibrated to DWP deductions statistics, and reform levers — cap changes, per-type abolition, and the protected minimum floor (JRF's proposal shape).

  • policyengine-uk 2.89.2 → 2.90.2 (three pyproject pins + bundle manifest, via prepare_package_bundle_update.py)
  • policyengine-core 3.30.0 → 3.30.1 (required by policyengine-uk 2.90.x)
  • Trace TRO sidecars regenerated (manifest hash binding)
  • UK model version surface snapshot refreshed (version change, per the snapshot policy)

Full test suite passes locally (783 tests).

Known caveat carried from the model release: aggregate deduction totals scale with the model's UC caseload (policyengine-uk-data#452); per-household statistics are the validated layer.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Brings Universal Credit deductions into the certified bundle: the Fair
Repayment Rate cap history, latent deduction demand calibrated to DWP
deductions statistics, and reform levers (cap changes, per-type
abolition, protected minimum floor). Core moves to 3.30.1 to satisfy
policyengine-uk 2.90.x. Regenerates the trace TRO sidecars and the UK
model version surface snapshot to match.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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CI failure is the certification gate working as designed: the UK data release (populace-uk-2023-dd68c73-4aa4b14-20260619T023711Z) declares compatible_model_packages: [policyengine-uk==2.89.2] only, so certifying for 2.90.2 fails on both bases (not built-with, no publisher claim). Everything else here is done — pins, lockfile, TRO sidecars, version-surface snapshot, and the full suite passes locally on the pinned pair (783 tests), which per the certification doctrine is the arbiter once a claim exists.

Remaining sequence:

  1. Publisher side (microcosm-data tooling): append a policyengine-uk==2.90.2 compatibility claim to the dd68c73 release manifest — the same pattern as the earlier release's post-hoc ==2.88.20 claim.
  2. Then on this branch: uv run python scripts/certify_data_release.py --country uk --manifest-uri "hf://dataset/policyengine/populace-uk-private@<new-revision>/releases/.../release_manifest.json" --model-version 2.90.2 (in the pre-bump environment, per the script's ordering), commit the certification block, and CI goes green.

Ordering note for future bumps: certify before moving pins — the import-time guard makes the post-bump environment unable to run the certifier.

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