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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ namespace Samples.Dynamic
public static class DetectChangePointBySsa
{
// This example creates a time series (list of Data with the i-th element corresponding to the i-th time slot).
// It demostrates stateful prediction engine that updates the state of the model and allows for saving/reloading.
// It demonstrates stateful prediction engine that updates the state of the model and allows for saving/reloading.
// The estimator is applied then to identify points where data distribution changed.
// This estimator can account for temporal seasonality in the data.
public static void Example()
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -50,9 +50,11 @@ public static void Example()
// Setup SsaChangePointDetector arguments
var inputColumnName = nameof(TimeSeriesData.Value);
var outputColumnName = nameof(ChangePointPrediction.Prediction);
int confidence = 95;
int changeHistoryLength = 8;

// Train the change point detector.
ITransformer model = ml.Transforms.DetectChangePointBySsa(outputColumnName, inputColumnName, 95, 8, TrainingSize, SeasonalitySize + 1).Fit(dataView);
ITransformer model = ml.Transforms.DetectChangePointBySsa(outputColumnName, inputColumnName, confidence, changeHistoryLength, TrainingSize, SeasonalitySize + 1).Fit(dataView);

// Create a prediction engine from the model for feeding new data.
var engine = model.CreateTimeSeriesPredictionFunction<TimeSeriesData, ChangePointPrediction>(ml);
Expand Down
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.IO;
using Microsoft.ML;
using Microsoft.ML.Data;
using Microsoft.ML.Transforms.TimeSeries;

namespace Samples.Dynamic
{
public static class DetectChangePointBySsaStream
{
// This example creates a time series (list of Data with the i-th element corresponding to the i-th time slot).
// It demonstrates stateful prediction engine that updates the state of the model and allows for saving/reloading.
// The estimator is applied then to identify points where data distribution changed.
// This estimator can account for temporal seasonality in the data.
public static void Example()
{
// Create a new ML context, for ML.NET operations. It can be used for exception tracking and logging,
// as well as the source of randomness.
var ml = new MLContext();

// Generate sample series data with a recurring pattern
const int SeasonalitySize = 5;
const int TrainingSeasons = 3;
const int TrainingSize = SeasonalitySize * TrainingSeasons;
var data = new List<TimeSeriesData>()
{
new TimeSeriesData(0),
new TimeSeriesData(1),
new TimeSeriesData(2),
new TimeSeriesData(3),
new TimeSeriesData(4),

new TimeSeriesData(0),
new TimeSeriesData(1),
new TimeSeriesData(2),
new TimeSeriesData(3),
new TimeSeriesData(4),

new TimeSeriesData(0),
new TimeSeriesData(1),
new TimeSeriesData(2),
new TimeSeriesData(3),
new TimeSeriesData(4),
};

// Convert data to IDataView.
var dataView = ml.Data.LoadFromEnumerable(data);

// Setup SsaChangePointDetector arguments
var inputColumnName = nameof(TimeSeriesData.Value);
var outputColumnName = nameof(ChangePointPrediction.Prediction);
int confidence = 95;
int changeHistoryLength = 8;

// Train the change point detector.
ITransformer model = ml.Transforms.DetectChangePointBySsa(outputColumnName, inputColumnName, confidence, changeHistoryLength, TrainingSize, SeasonalitySize + 1).Fit(dataView);

// Create a prediction engine from the model for feeding new data.
var engine = model.CreateTimeSeriesPredictionFunction<TimeSeriesData, ChangePointPrediction>(ml);

// Start streaming new data points with no change point to the prediction engine.
Console.WriteLine($"Output from ChangePoint predictions on new data:");
Console.WriteLine("Data\tAlert\tScore\tP-Value\tMartingale value");

// Output from ChangePoint predictions on new data:
// Data Alert Score P-Value Martingale value

for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++)
PrintPrediction(i, engine.Predict(new TimeSeriesData(i)));

// 0 0 -1.01 0.50 0.00
// 1 0 -0.24 0.22 0.00
// 2 0 -0.31 0.30 0.00
// 3 0 0.44 0.01 0.00
// 4 0 2.16 0.00 0.24

// Now stream data points that reflect a change in trend.
for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++)
{
int value = (i + 1) * 100;
PrintPrediction(value, engine.Predict(new TimeSeriesData(value)));
}
// 100 0 86.23 0.00 2076098.24
// 200 0 171.38 0.00 809668524.21
// 300 1 256.83 0.01 22130423541.93 <-- alert is on, note that delay is expected
// 400 0 326.55 0.04 241162710263.29
// 500 0 364.82 0.08 597660527041.45 <-- saved to disk

// Now we demonstrate saving and loading the model.

// Save the model that exists within the prediction engine.
// The engine has been updating this model with every new data point.
byte[] modelBytes;
using (var stream = new MemoryStream())
{
engine.CheckPoint(ml, stream);
modelBytes = stream.ToArray();
}

// Load the model.
using (var stream = new MemoryStream(modelBytes))
model = ml.Model.Load(stream, out DataViewSchema schema);

// We must create a new prediction engine from the persisted model.
engine = model.CreateTimeSeriesPredictionFunction<TimeSeriesData, ChangePointPrediction>(ml);

// Run predictions on the loaded model.
for (int i = 0; i < 5; i++)
{
int value = (i + 1) * 100;
PrintPrediction(value, engine.Predict(new TimeSeriesData(value)));
}

// 100 0 -58.58 0.15 1096021098844.34 <-- loaded from disk and running new predictions
// 200 0 -41.24 0.20 97579154688.98
// 300 0 -30.61 0.24 95319753.87
// 400 0 58.87 0.38 14.24
// 500 0 219.28 0.36 0.05

}

private static void PrintPrediction(float value, ChangePointPrediction prediction) =>
Console.WriteLine("{0}\t{1}\t{2:0.00}\t{3:0.00}\t{4:0.00}", value, prediction.Prediction[0],
prediction.Prediction[1], prediction.Prediction[2], prediction.Prediction[3]);

class ChangePointPrediction
{
[VectorType(4)]
public double[] Prediction { get; set; }
}

class TimeSeriesData
{
public float Value;

public TimeSeriesData(float value)
{
Value = value;
}
}
}
}
33 changes: 29 additions & 4 deletions src/Microsoft.ML.TimeSeries/PredictionFunction.cs
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -69,22 +69,47 @@ public sealed class TimeSeriesPredictionFunction<TSrc, TDst> : PredictionEngineB
/// <format type="text/markdown">
/// <![CDATA[
/// This is an example for checkpointing time series that detects change point using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) model.
/// [!code-csharp[MF](~/../docs/samples/docs/samples/Microsoft.ML.Samples/Dynamic/Transforms/TimeSeries/DetectChangePointBySsa.cs)]
/// [!code-csharp[Checkpoint](~/../docs/samples/docs/samples/Microsoft.ML.Samples/Dynamic/Transforms/TimeSeries/DetectChangePointBySsa.cs)]
/// ]]>
/// </format>
/// </example>
public void CheckPoint(IHostEnvironment env, string modelPath)
{
Contracts.CheckValue(env, nameof(env));
env.CheckParam(!string.IsNullOrEmpty(modelPath), nameof(modelPath));

using (var file = File.Create(modelPath))
if (Transformer is ITransformerChainAccessor)
CheckPoint(env, file);
}

/// <summary>
/// Checkpoints <see cref="TimeSeriesPredictionFunction{TSrc, TDst}"/> to a <see cref="Stream"/> with the updated
/// state.
/// </summary>
/// <param name="env">Usually <see cref="MLContext"/>.</param>
/// <param name="stream">Stream where the updated model needs to be saved.</param>
/// <example>
/// <format type="text/markdown">
/// <![CDATA[
/// This is an example for checkpointing time series that detects change point using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) model.
/// [!code-csharp[Checkpoint](~/../docs/samples/docs/samples/Microsoft.ML.Samples/Dynamic/Transforms/TimeSeries/DetectChangePointBySsaStream.cs)]
/// ]]>
/// </format>
/// </example>
public void CheckPoint(IHostEnvironment env, Stream stream)
{
Comment thread
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Contracts.CheckValue(env, nameof(env));
env.CheckParam(stream != null, nameof(stream));

if (Transformer is ITransformerChainAccessor)
{

new TransformerChain<ITransformer>
(((ITransformerChainAccessor)Transformer).Transformers,
((ITransformerChainAccessor)Transformer).Scopes).SaveTo(env, file);
((ITransformerChainAccessor)Transformer).Scopes).SaveTo(env, stream);
}
else
Transformer.SaveTo(env, file);
Transformer.SaveTo(env, stream);
}

private static ITransformer CloneTransformers(ITransformer transformer)
Expand Down