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42 changes: 40 additions & 2 deletions reports/ny_hp_rates/index.qmd
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
---
title: "Heat Pump Rates in New York State"
subtitle: "An analysis of cost-based and cost-reflective rates for heat pump customers"
date: "2026-01-09"
date: "2026-04-28"
author:
- name: Sherry Zuo
affiliations:
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -94,6 +94,13 @@ def cents(x, accuracy=1):
return f"{abs(x) * 100:,.{accuracy}f}"
```


::: {.callout-important}
## Embargoed until 9:00AM April 28, 2026

This report is provided in advance under embargo. Please do not publish, broadcast, post, or otherwise share findings from this report before **Tuesday, April 28, 2026 at 9:00 AM Eastern Time**.
:::

# Introduction

New York faces two intertwined energy challenges: rising electricity bills that strain household budgets across the state and the imperative to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, which are driving both climate change and a global energy crisis. The Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) mandates an 85% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050[^clcpa] and the state's Scoping Plan identifies building electrification — replacing gas furnaces and boilers with electric heat pumps — as one of the greatest opportunities to achieve those reductions.[^scoping-plan] Just as the challenges of energy affordability and fossil fuel reduction are connected, so are the solutions. As this report shows, modernizing {{< glossary "Rate design" display="rate design" >}} can advance affordability and reduce fossil fuel use and emissions.[^neep-modern-rate]
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1068,7 +1075,37 @@ The heat pump rate modeled in this report is a short- to medium-term fix. It cor

But as heat pump adoption starts to exhaust transmission and distribution headroom across the state, heat pump customers will increasingly be the ones driving grid investment — and keeping rates fair will mean reflecting that cost. At the distribution level, these adjustments wouldn't need to begin until the early 2040s, according to NYISO's baseline forecast.

# Acknowledgments
# About this report

## Who commissioned this report?

::: columns
::: {.column width="60%"}
This report was commissioned by [Earthjustice](https://earthjustice.org/) and [Alliance for a Green Economy](https://www.allianceforagreeneconomy.org/) with support from the [Environmental Defense Fund](https://www.edf.org/).

:::
::: {.column width="40%"}
![](img/earthjustice_logo.png){width="85%" fig-align="left"}
![](img/agree_logo.png){width="85%" fig-align="left"}
![](img/edf_logo.png){width="85%" fig-align="left"}
:::
:::

## Who is Switchbox?

::: columns
::: {.column width="60%"}
Switchbox is a nonprofit think tank that produces rigorous, accessible data on state climate policy for advocates, policymakers, and the public.

Find out more at [www.switch.box](https://www.switch.box).
:::

::: {.column width="40%"}
![](img/sb_logo.png){width="85%" fig-align="left"}
:::
:::

## Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the following individuals:

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1103,6 +1140,7 @@ The authors would like to thank the following individuals:
- Amy Panek, Park Foundation
- Laura Wisland, Heising-Simons Foundation


# Appendix 1: A primer on utility costs, bills, and rates {#sec-background}

The Background section (@sec-background) near the start of this report introduced utility costs, bills, cost of service, and rates, and previewed why volumetric delivery pricing strains heat pump economics. What follows is a step-by-step deep dive through the same topics — costs and cost of service, then bills and rates — to fully clarify these concepts, and their relationship to both the fairness problem (@sec-fairness-problem) and the efficiency problem (@sec-efficiency-problem).
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